ice age cometh?

The following article may be of interest to some. I take no credit, it is by Gregory F Fegal, I merely found it and thought it worth passing on. I hope Gregory does not mind. It appeared in Pravda, January 2009.

Approaching Ice Age

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.

Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the theory was established in its present form by the Czech mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal “Science” published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,” which described the correlation which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the Milankovich cycles, "… must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

In 1999 the British journal “Nature” published the results of data derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia ’s Vostok station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present time.

The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

clocks to change?

Mirabell, have you heard the latest? Will you stop and listen a minute.

OK, what is it?

People are talking about changing their clocks.

Changing their clucks, I don't think that's a good idea, I couldn't change mine.

You've not got one.

I have so.

I've never seen you with a clock.

A clock? What are you talking about, I've not got a clock, I'm talking about my cluck, I thought that was what you said they were going to change.

You've got feathers in your ears, nobody said anything about clucks.

Anyway what difference would it make to us chickens.

Well it's quite complicated. There is CET and BST and there's even GMT and people want to change them about a bit to stop it being so dark in the morning.

I've never heard of them, what are they.

Oh, it's really easy; CET is Chooky Egg Times and the other one, BST, well that's just Bantam Sitting Time and that last one, GMT, that's the easiest, its just Grain Munching Time. Do you get it now?

Now that you've explained it, it makes a lot of sense. But what I am still finding a bit difficult is, how will that help the people in the north of Scotland see where we lay our eggs.

I think we will need to sit on that one.

evening paddle

thirty years in mountains

It is October 1972 and I accept an invitation to go up a hill. I had been up hills before as a youngster, not that I remember much about them. What do I need, my rugby gear will not do. A pair of bendy boots and a Ventile jacket, both purchased in Aberdeen, I think the shop was Andersons, not sure. The hill was Lochnagar. I have vague memories of a Royal Shooting lodge, sweating up a rocky slope, Meikle Pap, then my first view over the edge to the black lochan nestling below an awesome amphitheatre of broken crags and cliffs that seemed to touch the sky. I had never seen anything like it and couldn’t take my eyes off it. Three weeks later it was Glas Maol and Creag Leacach, again faint memories of a plateau, a wooden hut where shelter was taken to eat amidst a blizzard, then a rocky ridge and wonderful views onto the Devil’s Elbow.

It was three years before I again ventured out. This time it was with a Mountain Rescue Team in the north of Scotland. The team was trying out prospective rescue team members. My memories, not so vague this time, are of a pair of heavy duty ‘shit catchers’, borrowed from a friendly stalker. By the end of the day they felt about a ton in weight, not a good thing as we trailed through deep heather in a wet cold day. Oh the mountain used for my fitness test, Meall Gorm, in the Fannichs. If I thought the walk in from the Ullapool road to Loch Li, followed by a steep ascent onto the ridge went on forever, I had not experienced the interminable trudge back out, dragged back by heavy duty plus fours. My test was semi successful, I did not get in and was told to get more time on the hill. Oh, the semi bit, I survived. A dram or two in the Aultguish was memorable.

I had done four Munro’s by then and didn’t even know.

I took the advice and over the next few years I trudged over various mountains, all the time getting more ‘hill fit”. My experience, in terms of becoming fit for the hills, is of long breathless pulls up never ending muddy grass. The ridges and the tops however always eased away my pain and I pressed on. By this time I had given up all hope of International honours at rugby, not that anyone else ever thought I had them in the first place. So it was the mountains for me. I am not sure why, many reasons probably, influences scarcely recalled, but a desire to keep fit and the expectation of these exhilarating ridges and summits.

An important influence, well remembered, was standing on the south terracing of Brockville, the home of Falkirk Football Club with two old supporters and friends. Both had spent years tramping hills all over Scotland, they had little idea which hills, but they had perfect memories of the lochs, as their passion was fishing. You get a clear view of the Ochils from that terracing, so many hill discussions took place, not while the game was in full flow. One brought me a treasured book to read. During my devouring of that book I read an account of Ben Alligin and the Horns of Alligin, I was transfixed, there was something mystical about it. Was it named after a Greek God or perhaps a mythical warrior. Alligin was therefore my motivation. My awareness of Munro’s had begun and I promised myself that if I were ever to go over them all, 'The Horns' would wait until last and if I did not get there, then they would remain a mystery to me. I kept that promise.

My experiences over the interim have been many and various and all good. Member of a Mountain Rescue Team for some years, including spells as training officer and secretary. Two crossings of Scotland in the ‘Ultimate Challenge”, classic rock climbs like Agag’s Grove and Savage Slit, ascent of Mont Blanc, bothy nights, crossing rivers at midnight, inversions, Brocken Specters, wonderful companions and tall stories.

Before finishing I have three completely different moments that will always stay with me;

After a glorious winter day my companion and I were heading along a narrow, steep sided track when we were faced with a large flock of sheep going in the opposite direction. We, being responsible mountaineers immediately took to the bank and sat still, so as not to disrupt the sheep. Behind them was the shepherd with his five four legged helpers, or was it his four five, no I was right first time. Anyway, there we sit on the bank blethering to the shepherd who was below our lofty perch. His dogs kept up a crazy pace running hither and yon. I was aware of a hot feeling on my right shoulder and thinking, I know Lifa vests are good, but not that good, I casually looked round and nearly had my right eye poked out by the cocked rear left leg of a collie as it peed on my back.

Another interesting day was in the Glen Lyon hills, again in winter. As my companion and I ascended a ridge we heard a sharp report followed by a deep whirring noise as a bullet passed over our heads. At the end of our day we were intercepted by a well known person who after some heated discussion was persuaded by his companion to get back into their car, as our conversation was about the shooting and perhaps he was saying too much.

A balmy May day finds me on the Skye ridge sprawled out in a seriously precarious spot looking over Rum, when I had one of those moments that I don’t think I have the skill or vocabulary to adequately describe. I, for a few moments, was in the perfect place. Destiny arranged that I be in exactly this place at this time. For that short time I was complete, there was no other place in the universe I could, or should have been. It was one of the calmest moments in my life.

To October 2002, I am a smidgen older, a bit slower and I am facing 'The Horns'. It is a dreich, blizzardy day and wet snow clings to every ledge. It is 'super dangereux.' I savour every moment and like so many days before, braving out the storm brings its rewards. The black clouds part and stunning views emerge. I stand on the summit of my last Munro. I have many thoughts amongst which is of these two old friends living out their dreams on the terraces of Brockville Park. Without them this privilege may never have been possible and I thank them.

I remember why I do this and why I will always do it. It does not need explaining, explanations can devalue, our mountains do not need explaining, they can speak for themselves, just get out and listen to them.

sheridan tapes leaked; it wisnae us say police and fiscals

TFO note that neither The Crown Office or Lothian and Borders Police are admitting to any wrongdoing over the 'leak' of police interview tapes to the BBC. In fact after both organisations carried out separate internal investigations they announced their satisfaction that the tapes were not leaked and both declare their innocence in this matter. Well, that will be fine then.

So lets look at what we know, or we think we know. I am beginning to sound like Donald bloody Rumsfleld, "There's another way to phrase that and that is that the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. It is basically saying the same thing in a different way. Simply because you do not have evidence that something does exist does not mean that you have evidence that it doesn't exist."

So how did the BBC get hold of copies? Maybe there was no leak, perhaps the police or the Crown Office, simply gave the BBC said copies. Am I being pedantic, but did the correct question get asked; Who leaked them?

Undaunted however TFO managed to get through to a mole within the police service and was met with this rejoinder;

' Maybe they wurnie the same tapes. Think aboot it, tapes are easy made up. Ah mean, you didnae see the faces o' the polis, did ye? Ur you getting ma drift. Its no hard tae set up the scene than add the fake voices, a mean, its no the furst time we've done it. A didnae mean the last bit, wull ye take that bit oot. Whit a meant tae say wis, its no the furst time somebody else his dun it. Ken whit a mean like, ya hoor ye.'

The other obvious answer is fairies. Is it?

I am sounding like Donald Rumsfeld again.